Statistic Analyses of Crimes in the UK Research Paper

Statistic Analyses of Crimes in the UK - Research Paper Example Data was collected from the government data portal (gov.uk). The portal has a database of historical data sets on all sorts of crime committed in UK. The figure below presents a time series plot for the number of robbery cases reported over a period of time (from 1970-2013). The graph shows that cases of robbery have been on rise from 1970 till close to 2005 when the cases began going down. In this section we describe the model used to predict the number of robberies (crime). This is an OLS model that has dependent variable (number of robberies) and two independent variables (unemployment rate and annual growth); This variable looked at the patterns of unemployment in the United Kingdom. Unemployment occurs when people are without work and actively seeking work.  The  unemployment rate  is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the  labor force. During periods of  recession, an economy usually experiences a relatively high unemployment rate.  The data was collected from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) which is the largest producer of official statistics and the recognized national statistical institute of the UK. It is a time series data spanning from 1970 to 2013. The graph shows no clear cut pattern but rather an up and down movement of the unemployment rate over the period. However, it is worth to note that the country had the least unemployment rate in 2005 but this changed and drastically increased during the global economic crisis that affected the world. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 3 percent in the third quarter of 2014 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 2.04 Percent from 1970 until 2013, reaching an all-time high of 7.63 Percent in the first quarter of 1973 and a